China's Solar Monopoly is dangerous: Dr Eicke R. Weber, a world-renowned Solar expert

The world must find a solution to China's Solar Monopoly

BY Vijay Thakur, Special Representative, The Statesman, vijaythakurx@gmail.com

During my interaction with Dr Eicke R. Weber, a doctorate from Cologne University & Presently the Vice President of International Solar Energy Society, he explains the danger of China's monopoly mainly on PV cells especially when solar installations in the world would increase 10 times by 2050... the Interview appeared in The Statesman last year when he visited India to be the chief guest in International Solar exhibition in Greater Noida. I am reproducing the article as it is very relevant in the present context.

About Dr Eicke R Weber:

Dr Eicke R. Weber, a doctorate from Cologne University in defects in deformed silicon, has dedicated over four decades in silicon research and solar energy panels. He has been a professor in the University of California and Berkley for over twenty years and earned name in the field of silicon defects and III-V semiconductors. He mainly researched how metallurgical silicon with a certain amount of impurities could be used to produce high-efficiency solar cells.

Presently the Vice President of International Solar Energy Society, Dr Weber was also the Director of the Fraunhofer Institute of Solar Energy—a world-renowned Solar Energy research institute. As a Director of the prestigious institute, he intensified networking between the University and with corporate world involved in the solar business. He was also involved in setting up a new Sustainability Center Freiburg between Fraunhofer and the University for Solar Energy promotion. Dr Weber spoke to Vijay Thakur, Special Representative the Statesman, on the future of solar energy and its necessity.

Excerpts of the Interview:

Question

What you think is the main challenge before the global solar industry. And how do you these challenges can be it can be tackled?.

Answer.

Though there are many challenges before the industry. But we know it is the future and will soon have some solutions. Among all challenges, the biggest challenge is global solar cell production is mostly in the hands of one country that is China. In the coming years, it can create global imbalance, which is not strategically good for any country.

Today China is probably the only country which is catering to most of the global PV cell demands. Their rate per watt is very low and frankly speaking there is hardly any country which can match Chinese price. And this is the problem strategically speaking is it advisable to give full business to China. So far we have not taken it seriously, but time has come to prevent the entire marketing getting dominated by one country only.

Today total annual solar installation around the world is around 500 GegaWatt, which would cross 3,000 to 5,000 GWatt by 2030 which means 10 times increase. By 2050 demand of solar panels would touch 50,000 Gwatt. By a simple calculations, solar panel demand would increase 100 times incoming thirty years.

It is time for our global political leaders to see if we can give the entire business to only one country. Strategically I would call it a blunder, and request big countries mainly India to venture out in solar cell productions. If this trend is not reversed, it would bring imbalance in the solar market, which is going to be the main source of energy in future.

 

Question:

How do you think we can meet this challenge?

 

Answer:

It is time for countries like India, USA and Germany to come forward and produce large scale solar cells at a very affordable price to meet China price. If we do not do now than we will miss the bus. Solar cells production is fully mechanized, and within a couple of years, we can meet the Chinese price in Germany as well as in India. Our leadership should show their will power in this direction, and that is the only solution.

Question:

India has set a great target for the use of solar energy. It is encouraging and subsidizing the solar industry. How do you see the future of the Indian solar industry and its role in the International solar market?

Answer:

No doubt India has done a great job in promoting the solar industry during the past couple of years. India has not only promoted the domestic solar industry, but It is also providing services to third world countries. Certainly India has a very important role to play in the global transformation process in renewable energy. After China, India has the biggest growing solar energy demand in the world. It has very ambitious targets to bring down CO2 emissions. Solar energy appears to be the only source for the whole of India. It can be harvested anywhere in the country at and at a very reasonable and affordable price. Solar energy production has come down as low as two to four cents a unit.

Now coming to India’s role in the international market, we must admit that India is going to lead the International market. I will not be surprised if I see India covering a solar market of developed countries.

 

Question:

One of the main problems in promoting the solar industry is that it cannot be stored and the present cost of storage cost is very high. You think when this problem would be over or when power storage would become pricewise competitive in India and abroad.

 

Answer.

To a great extent, the present storage cost is high. But it is coming down year by year. At present, lithium-ion batteries are around USD 100 a KiloWatt Hour. We are expecting its prices to go down like PhotoVoltaic cells in a couple of years. If we see 20 years ago, PV cells were not a choice for a country like India, but today the prices have reduced several times. Today in India solar power from solar has become the cheapest source of energy. Similarly in the coming years, we will see prices of battery storage solutions to go down like PV cells. But at the same time, there are other ways of energy solutions. The excess electricity produced from the solar system can be used to separate hydrogen from water, which can be stored for a long time. We see the storage of solar energy by generating hydrogen.

Having said all that, we strongly believe that in the coming five years, prices of solar energy storage would come down to a level where a common man can afford it. But we will have to wait for a time when solar energy generation and storage would become cheaper than the existing grid system. I would not be surprised if the solar storage would become cheaper than the transmission and distribution cost and its losses.

 

Question:

International Solar Alliance (ISA), an alliance of 121 countries blessed with solar energy is headquartered in Gurgaon India. Indian leadership has shown its commitment to help third world countries to promote and install solar power projects. Do you think ISA would help India to emerge a global leader in developing countries?

Ans:

Yes, India has a real opportunity to be a leader in the global solar energy industry of the developing countries. ISA would, directly and indirectly, help India become a global leader. It can provide services to all developing countries particularly the continent like Africa. India can offer decentralized power supply to developing countries by designing mini-grids for off-grid solar solutions at a very affordable rate. African countries are really looking forward to India for affordable solar business solutions. India can train technicians of developing counties and provide them with utility items of the solar industry.

Question:

Now Electric Vehicles are coming in a big way in India. It is likely to penetrate deep into Indian cities and rural areas. You think the introduction of EVs would help the Indian solar industry?

 

Answer:

Certainly, I have very high hope from Electric Vehicles. The spread of electric vehicles would revolutionize the solar industry. It appears strange but true, electric vehicles and the solar industry have a very close link. One, we can now charge electric vehicles directly using PVs which would bring down carbon emission level and reduce dependence on fossil fuel. Since EV would be an organized industry, it would manufacture Lithium-Ion batteries in volume and ultimately bring down the prices good quality batteries for off-grid solutions.

And lastly, the average life of EV batteries is five years. After five years, its power rate becomes as low as 80% and cannot be used for electric vehicles. But for a home solar system, these batteries can be run for another five years. EVs would open a new market of used LiOn batteries for domestic usage. As a result, the cost of electric vehicles would come down as the used batteries will be used for home solar systems giving them a second life. Since its prices would be much less, those who cannot afford costly solar batteries would opt for second life LiOn battery. This way EV would not only promote solar power but would also bring down the storage system.

Vijay Thakur, The Statesman.

 

Ends.