Monday, August 10, 2020

Is it beginning of end for COVID-19 in India, Death toll, new cases and recovery curves all impressive during the past month.

Oct5



Coronavirus Cases: 6,622,180

Deaths:102,714

Recovered:5,583,453

Total recovered: 5,583,453

Active cases: 936,013

Oct 4

India figure

New cases: 75,479; recovered: 81,655

Coronavirus Cases:6,547,413

Deaths:101,812

Recovered:5,506,732


world figure

Coronavirus Cases: 35,127,716

Deaths:1,037,942

Recovered:26,121,886




Oct 3



India's death toll crossed one lakh mark on Gandhi's Birthday
Coronavirus Cases: 6,471,934

Deaths:100,875

Recovered:5,425,077


कोरोना काम हुआ है गया नहीं है
हम उसे भूल सकते है वो हमें नहीं भूलेगा 



Oct 2

 India Coronavirus Cases:6,394,068

Deaths: 99,804

Recovered: 5,352,078

world Coronavirus Cases:34,476,258

Deaths:1,027,631

Recovered:25,666,466





Oct 1

With 52.7 lakh Covid 19 recoveries, India has the highest number of recoveries, US listing second recovering nearly 47 lakh covid 19 patients.
Coronavirus Cases: 34,153,075

Deaths: 1,018,732

Recovered: 25,424,847

Sept 30, update

India continues to be number one in the world, 80,500 new cases,  86,000 recoveries, and 1178 deaths

Total cases so far: 62.23 lakhs
Total recovered cases: 51.84 lakhs
total deaths: 97,529.












Sept 29 update 

India’s Recovery Rate leaps past 83%

Recovered Cases exceed Active Cases by more than 41.5 lakhs

Posted On: 29 SEP 2020 12:19PM 

India continues to report high number of recoveries. The recovered cases have exceeded the new confirmed again during the past 24 hours.  With this, India’s Recovery Rate has leaped past 83% today.

84,877 recoveries have been registered in the last 24 hours in the country while the number of new confirmed cases stands at 70,589. The total number of recoveries has touched 51,01,397.

73% of the new recovered cases are being reported from ten States, viz. Maharashtra, Karnataka Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Odisha, Kerala, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh.

Maharashtra is topping the list with nearly 20,000 recoveries while Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh both contribute more than 7,000 to the single day recoveries.

WhatsApp Image 2020-09-29 at 10.42.50 AM (1).jpeg

The sustained high level of recoveries have led to further widening of the gap between active and recovered cases. Recovered cases exceed the active cases (9,47,576 ) by more than 41.5 lakh (41,53,831). The recovered cases are 5.38  times the active cases ensuring that the recoveries are consistently rising.

The active caseload of the country presently is merely 15.42% of the total positive cases and is consistently declining.

The following two graphs depict the changing scenario of the active cases in the top ten states between 23rd and 29th September.

WhatsApp Image 2020-09-29 at 10.42.51 AM.jpeg

WhatsApp Image 2020-09-29 at 10.42.50 AM (2).jpeg

                                                                                                                                        

A total of 70,589 new cases have been reported in the last 24 hours in the country.

10 States/UTs account for 73% of the new confirmed cases.

Maharashtra continues to lead this tally. It has contributed more than 11,000 followed by Karnataka with more than 6,000 cases.

 

WhatsApp Image 2020-09-29 at 10.42.50 AM.jpeg

There have been 776 deaths in the past 24 hours.

10 States/UTs account for 78% of the deaths in the last 24 hours due to COVID.

Of the new deaths, Maharashtra reported more than 23% of deaths with 180 deaths followed by Tamil Nadu with 70 deaths.

WhatsApp Image 2020-09-29 at 10.42.49 AM.jpeg


Today after a long time India see a remarkable decrease in new cases (less than 70,000), daily death came down to 777, and recovery increased by more than 85,000.



All these figures appear impressive considering the fact that we have just 9.5 lakh active cases of COVID-19 patients in the country and we have conducted more than 7.1 crore tests so far--which is only next to USA (10.5 crore tests).
It is a great sign of relief that, India has after eight months of COVID outbreak, our active cases are showing a decline, new cases which had touched almost one case a day came down to 70,000 cases a day and the daily death toll today is showing what it was in July August.
Having said all that India must not be complacent and invite the second wave that could be more dangerous than the first wave (we are already seeing it in France).
It is time not to celebrate the decline but to be extra cautious.
following is the data













my earlier posts


Total cases:5,816,103

Total recovered: 4,752,991
Total death: 92,317

75% of new confirmed cases found concentrated in 10 States/UTs

Posted On: 24 SEP 2020 

For the sixth consecutive day, the number of new confirmed cases has been lower than the new recoveries.

A total of 86,508 new cases have been reported in the last 24 hours in the country. 75% of the new confirmed cases are concentrated in 10 States/UTs.

Maharashtra continues to top this list. It has alone contributed more than 21,000 followed by Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka with more than more than 7,000 and 6,000 cases respectively.

 

WhatsApp Image 2020-09-24 at 10.14.44 AM.jpeg

 

1,129 deaths have been registered in the past 24 hours.

10 States/UTs account for 83% of the deaths in the last 24 hours due to COVID.

Maharashtra reported 479 deaths followed by Uttar Pradesh and Punjab with 87 and 64 deaths, respectively.

WhatsApp Image 2020-09-24 at 10.14.43 AM.jpeg

                                                                                                                                                                                      

India has substantially ramped up its testing infrastructure across the country. As on date, there are 1810 labs including 1082 government and 728 private labs.

11,56,569 tests were conducted in the past 24 hours. The total number of tests has crossed 6.74 cr today.

 




India records the highest number of deaths and new cases in the world in COVID-19 cases, would continue to be on top for the coming months.

covid 19 ACTIVE CASES
With a daily spike of 62,000+ for the past few days and death toll crossing 1000+, India is on top of the world. Earlier USA and Brazil had more patients than India, But for the past three-four days, India is on the top chart and if experts are to be believed, it would continue to be on the top for the coming months till COVID-19 peak flattens.

However, if there is any reason to be relaxed, it is the death rate, very low CFR (Case Fatality Rate), and the fact that India is conducting more than 7 lakhs tests a day. Presently, the health infrastructure is not as overloaded as we had seen in Spain, Italy, or in the USA.

No Need to Panic  


daily deaths in india, aug 10People should not panic by the increasing number of cases. India is testing 7 lakhs, people, a day this practice has worked worldover. So is daily death cases, it is 1000+ presently, and when it would attain its peak, the daily death might touch 2000+ (as reported in Western countries).

And since we have 137 crore population, this phase may last for a few months to get the peak. Again Peak would differ from state to state. Presently it has densely spread in 10 most populated states, in others, it is still in a spreading phase--may take a month or two.

Case Fatality Ratio, which estimates this proportion of deaths among identified confirmed cases, is almost 2 %--much less than what we had reported in Western Countries.

daily new casesHealth Infrastructure: If we ignore the initial rush and negligence in Delhi, Mumbai and Bihar (Patna), India health department has performed much better than other countries. Yet the actual test of COVID-19 would be seen in the coming months. So fa,r  COVID-19 infection still remained concentrated in 10 States that contribute more than 80% of the new cases. It means Half of India has yet to see the COVID-19 impact in the coming months.

India is lucky in that respect that most crowded places are apparently getting 'herd immunity' and less populated areas are likely to see its impact. This way there would not be any major pressure on health Infrastructure.

Secondly, unlike, Spain, Italy or USA, doctors and authorities in India got sufficient time to prepare for Testing, tracking and Treatment (the three T strategy it had launched) to fight COVID 19.

Fast Recoveries:

India's COVID-19 recoveries have crossed the historic peak of 1.5 million today (August 10). Recovery of 15,35,743 patients has been made possible because of the policy of TESTING aggressively, TRACKING comprehensively and TREATING efficiently. Better ambulance services focus on Standard of Care and use of non-invasive oxygen have given the desired results.

With the highest-ever single-day recoveries of 54,859 in the last 24 hours, the Recovery Rate amongst the COVID-19 patients has scaled another high of almost 70%.

The record high recoveries have ensured that the actual caseload of the country viz. the active cases has reduced and currently comprises only 28.66% of the total positive cases. India has posted more than 9 lakh recoveries than the active cases (6,34,945).

The coordinated efforts of Centre and State/UT governments on early detection through aggressive testing and efficient clinical management of hospitalized cases have shown results with continuously regressing Case Fatality Rate. It is 2%, as on date, and steadily declining. Early identification of cases has also led to steeply falling percentage active cases.

Early identification helps to ensure timely and prompt isolation of the mild and moderate cases and hospitalisation of the severe and critical cases thereby leading to the effective management of cases.

It is important to note that the COVID-19 infection still remains concentrated in 10 States that contribute more than 80% of the new cases. The aggressive testing and tracking through house-to-house surveys and well-implemented containment strategies and surveillance in these areas may lead to an initial increase in positive cases. However, well-implemented strategies will ensure it reduces over time.

For all authentic & updated information on COVID-19 related technical issues, guidelines & advisories please regularly visit https://www.mohfw.gov.in/ and @MoHFW_INDIA.



CORONA update August 10


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